Our scenario approach
Six-step scenario-based approach to strategic planning
The HHL-Roland Berger approach to scenario-based strategic planning scenario development process comprises six consecutive steps. Based on our experience in teaching strategic management and advising corporate clients around the world, we have developed innovative scenario tools that support each of these steps. For more details, scroll over the information below.
Step 1
Definition of Scope
Step 4
Scenario Building
Step 2
Perception Analysis
Step 5
Strategy Definition
Step 3
Trend and Uncertainty Analysis
Step 6
Monitoring
Step 1: Definition of Scope
Task: Identify core probems and frame analysis
Tool: Framing checklist
To define the scope of the project the framing checklist is used as a framework. This first step is particularly important as it identifies among others the relevant internal and external stakeholders and a scope for the entire analysis.
Step 4: Scenario Building
Task: Develop scenarios based on key uncertainties
Tool: Scenario matrix
The Scenario Building step uses a scenario matrix that is based on two key uncertainties, which serve as the basis for building and describing four scenarios. Each scenario should have a concise and easily memorable name.
Step 2: Perception Analysis
Task: Identify assumptions and mental models
Tool: 360° stakeholder feedback
The Perception Analysis step in scenario planning involves examining the perspectives of internal and external stakeholders to identify factors potentially influencing the future of the industry. The 360° stakeholder feedback framework is used to identify key factors, blind spots, and weak signals for potential changes in the macro environment.
Step 5: Strategy Definition
Task: Deduct action plans for implementation
Tool: Strategy Manual
The Strategy Definition step in scenario planning aims to generate a core strategy and strategic options using the Strategy Manual tool. The Strategy Manual tool facilitates strategy development, identifies strategic measures to implement, and develops scenario-based portfolios at its core.
Step 3: Trend and Uncertainty Analysis
Task: Discuss and evaluate relevant trends
Tool: Impact / uncertainty grid
The Trend and Uncertainty Analysis step aims to evaluate relevant trends and critical uncertainties. The Impact/Uncertainty Grid is used to cluster identified factors into secondary elements, trends, and critical uncertainties based on their potential impact and level of uncertainty.
Step 6: Monitoring
Task: Monitor developments and challenge assumptions
Tool: Scenario cockpit
The overall goal of the monitoring step and its Scenario Cockpit tool is to identify which previously developed strategic options hsould be implemented and at what point in time this implementation should take place.
Step 1: Scope Definition
In Step 1 we define the overall scope of the project. For this, we use the framing checklist as a framework. It specifies the goal, strategic level of analysis, participants, time horizon and stakeholders to be included in the analysis. Defining the project goal is particularly important, as it sets the scope for the entire analysis. The most important aspect of the framing checklist is defining the relevant internal and external stakeholders, which should be as broad as possible.
Video Step 1: Scope Definition
Video Step 2: Perception Analysis
STEp 2: perception analysis
The Perception Analysis examines internal and external stakeholders’ perspectives on industry developments, generating a list of factors affecting the future of the industry. The identified factors are assessed based on their potential impact on the company’s performance and their degree of uncertainty. The 360° stakeholder feedback tool, a two-step survey process, evaluates the perceptions of the internal and external stakeholders identified in the framing checklist. The tool generates a list of key factors influencing the industry for identifying changes in the macro environment and detecting blind spots and weak signals.
STEp 3: Trend and Uncertainty analysis
The general aim of the trend and Uncertainty Analysis is to discuss and evaluate relevant trends and critical uncertainties.
The Impact/Uncertainty Grid is a matrix with two dimensions: Uncertainty on the x-axis and potential impact (for future performance) on the y-axis. The goal is to cluster the relevant factors that we identified during the Perception Analysis into secondary elements, trends, and especially critical uncertainties. Critical uncertainties have a high impact on a firm’s future success and are highly uncertain.
Video Step 3: Trend and Uncertainty Analysis
Video Step 4: Scenario Building
Step 4: Scenario Building
At the heart of the Scenario Building step is the Scenario Matrix. The scenario matrix is based on two key uncertainties that have been derived from all uncertainties identified in step three. The two key uncertainties serve as scenario dimensions. They are hence the basis for building as well as describing the four scenarios. Each scenario should be given a concise and easily memorable name.
STEp 5: Strategy definition
The overall goal of the strategy definition step and its Strategy Manual tool is to generate and develop a core strategy as well as strategic options for the firm. The Strategy Manual tool facilitates strategy development and identifies precise strategic measures to be implemented. At the core of the Strategy Manual is the development of scenario-based portfolios.
Video Step 5: Strategy Definition
Video Step 6: Monitoring
Step 6: Monitoring
The overall goal of the monitoring step and its Scenario Cockpit tool is to identify which previously developed strategic options should be implemented and at what point in time this implementation should take place. .